UFC 278 Preview: Usman vs. Edwards 2

The headlining fight of the night will feature a rematch between the current top pound for pound fighter (and also welterweight champion), Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman(20-1), and the #2 ranked contender, Leon “Rocky” Edwards (19-3, 1 NC). This will surely be a great way to cap off an exciting card.

Coming off a dominant win against former welterweight contender Nate Diaz, Leon Edwards appears to be in the best shape of his career. His matchup against Diaz was almost perfect, except for the last 30 seconds of the fight, in which he was dazed by a Diaz straight right. Leon Edwards is on an 8 fight win streak following his loss to a young Usman in 2015. Usman has been on a win streak of his own, going 14-0 in the UFC following his Ultimate Fighter 21 win. With wins over some of the best in the division, namely, Colby Covington x2, Jorge Masvidal x2, Gilbert Burns, and Tyron Woodley.

The first fight went as many predicted, Kamaru Usman used his elite wrestling to drag Edwards down to the canvas, and punished him with a ground-and-pound en route to a Unanimous decision victory (29-28, 29-28, 30-27). Usman out struck Edwards 126-36 and landed 6/13 takedowns to Edwards 0. Usman also controlled Edwards for over 10 minutes in their first bout. Having said that, I believe this fight will be a different fight with more fireworks.

UFC 278 Prediction & Analysis: Usman vs. Edwards 2

Measurables	Usman	Edwards
Height	6'0	6'2
Reach	75 in	74 in
SSL/m	4.66	2.62
SSA/15m	2.59	2.15
Takedown/ 15m	3	1.48
Takedown Acc	49%	35%
Striking Acc	53%	49%

As seen in the measurables, Edwards has a much slower work rate than Usman, and this can also be reflected in his finish rate, only putting away 9 of his 19 opponents, 6 by way of knockout, 3 by submission. Although he does have the potential to finish his opponents, I don’t see him finishing the pound for pound king. His best path to victory will be to strike from distance in the centre of the octagon, without engaging with Usman in the clinch or on the fence. Keeping distance with his jab and controlling the center of the octagon will be essential for Edwards. Inevitably, Edwards will need to utilize his improved wrestling to stuff Usman’s takedown attempts. However, in a 25-minute fight, I think this will be incredibly difficult for Edwards to be 100% on takedown defense.

For Usman, the path to victory is far more visible. I believe Usman will stand and strike with Edwards for the first few rounds before moving to a takedown heavy approach to end Edwards chances of catching him with a big shot or combination. Usman has a better cardio/work rate, and this will be something he will lean on to ultimately put Edwards away. The current betting line for the fight has Usman as a -360 favorite on The Score Bet, implying a win rate of 72%, which I feel is fair. It could be a steep price to pay, but ultimately, I see this fight falling in Usman’s favour. Some props for the fight to keep an eye on will be the fight going the distance (-145), Usman by points (-125), and a dark horse Usman by TKO (+250).

By: Jack Barnett