Fast 5 Week 3

Last Week's Record: 3-2

Overall record: 6-4 

Week 2 recap: 

Jayden Daniels o42.5 rushing yards ❌

Breece Hall o57.5 rushing yards ❌

Ja’marr Chase o83.5 receiving yards ✅

TB Buccaneers at HOU Texans: Under 42.5 ✅   

Puka Nacua over 80.5 receiving yards ✅

Week 2 saw another week of winning picks! Still looking for our first clean sweep of the season,  we start with an NFC championship game rematch in Philadelphia: 

1. Saquon Barkley longest rush OVER 18.5 yards 

This is a pretty simple one to

us off for the week. Saquon destroyed the Rams in their two matchups last season.  In 2 games, he got 460 total yards, 4 tds, averaged 8.8 yards a carry, and had touchdown runs of 78, 72, 70, and 62 yards. Where the Rams' young defence has certainly improved, healthy Saquon certainly can break off a 20-yard run against any matchup, let alone this one, where he has absolutely dominated. 

2. Tyler Warren OVER 49.5 receiving yards 

The hottest offense in the NFL, led by Daniel Jones and Shane Steichen, head to Tennessee for their first road game of the season. Penn State rookie tight end Tyler Warren, through the first two weeks, has been Daniel Jones’s number 1 target as he leads the Colts in receptions, targets, and receiving yards so far this season. Warren has been a huge part of the Colts' early-season success as a safety blanket for Jones, but Steichen has also been utilizing his new TE all over the field on offense. Warren has lined up in the back field, out wide, and in the slot, and has produced huge plays from all spots. Steichen is clearly using his rookie TE in all sorts of ways and wants to get him involved early and often. Warren is also in a favourable matchup this week in a divisional game against the Titans. In the first two weeks, the Titans have surrendered 4-37 yards to 32-year-old TE Tyler Higbee, and in week 1, Evan Engram had 3-21, and was looking on track for a bigger game before getting injured. We look for the Colts' offence and Tyler Warren to continue their early-season success, and go over his 49.5 receiving yard prop this weekend. 

3. Jared Goff OVER 34.5 pass attempts  

We are going to the MNF matchup between two teams with Super Bowl aspirations as the Lions head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. The Detroit Lions looked like they got back into form in week 2 against the Bears as they put a 50-piece up on their former OC, Ben Johnson. Where Goff did not go over this attempt prop in week 2, he did in week 1 vs the Packers, as the Lions were trailing for most of the game, and in a more competitive matchup. I think the Lions will have to rely on their QB and his arm to expose the secondary of the Ravens, who looked vulnerable in week 1, and played the Browns in week 2. The Lions' offence through 2 weeks ranks fourth in passing yards, and only 15th in rushing yards. On the other side of the ball, through 2 weeks, the Ravens allow 298 passing yards per game, the second worst in the league. The Lions and Goff will be ready to take advantage of this Ravens secondary, and we can expect a big game from Amon Ra as well. This game also has one of the highest point totals of the week, so in a game projected for lots of points, we love Jared Goff to go over his pass attempts of 34.5. 

This will be a true test for the Lions, as Lamar historically has had great success against NFC teams, and Jared Goff will be relied on to get things done in the air to keep the Lions in it.    

4. Brian Thomas Jr. UNDER 5.5 receptions  

BTJ has not looked anything close to what we had all expected following his stellar rookie season. Through the first two weeks of the season, BTJ has only 5 catches on 19 targets. His matchup in week 3 does not get any better for him as he faces one of the best defences and secondaries in the NFL as the Texans head to Duval for an AFC South showdown. BTJ will have a very difficult task ahead of him in week 3, as All-Pro Derek Stingley will most likely get the majority of the reps on him in man coverage. Mike Evans in week 2 vs Stingley ran 29 routes and caught 3 of 9 targets for 36 yards. Against a weaker Bengals secondary, he only brought in 4 of his 12 targets. Until BTJ starts to look more like the explosive rookie we remember from last year, we can look to fade his reception prop if it stays at 5.5.  

5. PITT @ NE OVER 44.5 points 

For our final play of the week, we look at a total. The Steelers surprisingly have had one of the worst defences in the league to start the season. Through 2 weeks, the Steelers have allowed the third most yards per game, and have let up 32 and 31 points to open the season. The Steelers' offence looked good in week 1 against the Jets, but struggled against the Seahawks in week 2, and still were able to put up 17 points. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots under Mike Vrabel open the season 1-1. Second-year QB Drake Maye is getting more comfortable in the NFL and had an impressive outing against the Dolphins in the Patriots' 33-27 victory. NE has had a difficult time defending the pass, giving up 315 in the air to Tua and 362 to Geno in week 1. With that said, star cornerback Christian Gonzalez is potentially going to play this week, which would be a huge boost for their defense.  

Through 2 weeks, the Steelers' games overs are 2/2, and the New England game overs are 1-1. In a game where we can expect the Patriots to find success on the ground with Drake Maye and their two young backs against a struggling and banged up Steelers defence, and the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers to be able to move the ball on a shaky NE secondary, especially with a limited or potentially out Christian Gonzalez, we will take the over 44.5 total points.  

Bonus TD Parlay:

Rome Odunze

Ceedee Lamb

Puka Nacua

Johnathan Taylor